The Day The Data Died
A long long time ago
I can still remember how
That [data] used to make me smile
And I knew if I had my chance
That I could make those [numbers] dance
And maybe they’d be happy for a while
But February made me shiver
With every paper I’d deliver
Bad news on the doorstep
I couldn’t take one more step
Our modern society thrives on data. Whether it’s the sports world, the business world, social science, economics, or just about every other category you can think of, for decades data regarding people’s experiences, opinions, and behavior has driven decision making and understanding about how our world works. This data has now become a casualty of the COVID-19 health and economic crises.
Up to this point, our knowledge (regardless of industry or discipline) has been based on our understanding of what has happened in the past coupled with our understanding of what is happening at the current time. We use these two sets of inputs to make a prediction of what will happen in the near future. Typically the better the inputs and understanding of these two data categories the better the predictions of future events will be.
Right now neither of these inputs exist in any meaningful way. Our understanding of even the very recent past is largely irrelevant, and our understanding of the present is incomplete and unclear. So our decision making is happening largely in the absence of real data, leaving gut instinct, hunches, and ideology as the drivers: a very scary prospect.
There is nothing in the past 100 years that comes close to being comparable to our current events. Even society altering events such as 9–11 or World Wars had very different effects on us as Americans and us as global citizens. Even though the cause of the 2008 Great Recession was a unique set of circumstances, there was precedent for people to work off of to determine likely human and consumer behavior based on reactions to other sharp economic downturns. Currently, we are in the dark.
During the last few weeks, people have basically stopped being customers overnight. This is not to say that commerce has completely ground to a halt, but past buying patterns are no longer predictive (the run on toilet paper for example or the fact that most of our bars and restaurants have shut down). While supermarkets are having an unprecedented level of sales, it is likely that companies focusing on non-essential items are taking a big hit. Volatility is increasing because we don’t know how long these changes in consumer behavior are going to last or if spending will quickly move back to past patterns or if the ramp back up to a growing economy will manifest itself in a totally new way. The number of businesses who are working with any reasonable understanding of our current situation is slim to none.
Even the data sets that have been the foundation of so many decisions in the past (census data as an example) are moving into the obsolete category quickly since income, living arrangements, employment status, etc. are all likely to be changing from week to week.
In addition to the many other ways we are going to need to rethink and relearn daily life in the coming months, we are going to need to find better ways for decision-makers to understand the world they’re operating in. Political, non-profit, and business leaders are making decisions every day that will shape our future, and they’re doing so in an exceptionally fast-changing environment with extremely limited information.
To help combat this information gap Trendency Research has created The COVID-19 Data Project. This project will allow all of us to understand how the crisis is affecting people, and how that’s changing day by day. This data is already starting to show not just what people are feeling and needing, but how that’s changing over time-critical information as we come together to decide what we do next. This data will be distributed publicly and also directly to decision-makers. We are in this together, and we will get through this. Data is one important piece of the puzzle and we can all help.
For more information please go to https://thecovid19dataproject.com
And the three men I admired the most
The Father, Son, and the Holy Ghost
They caught the last train for the coast
The day the [data] died
And they were singing
Bye, bye Miss American Pie
Drove my Chevy to the levee but the levee was dry
Them good ole boys were drinking whiskey and rye
Singin’ this’ll be the day that I die
