The 1 Year Anniversary: A Look at Trump Under Investigation
As you might have noticed, there continues to be a lot of discussion about the Trump campaign and possible collusion with Russia. And if you think this has been going on for a while, don’t worry you are not crazy, it has been. In fact, last month, the Special Counsel investigation, led by former FBI Director Robert Mueller, hit its one-year anniversary. While we are not positive on the socially appropriate gift for such an occasion, President Trump seems to feel the gift of words is the most appropriate. He has accused the investigation of being politically motivated “fake news” and a witch hunt. Recently, new adjectives emerged when President Trump tweeted that the investigation is a “hoax,” a “setup,” and a “trap.” This deft use of a thesaurus, and overall antagonism, is a clear attempt to create a zero-sum game for the public with the investigation and Trump on either end. The White House seems to believe that this is a strong position for them, but is the American public viewing the issue as a black and white choice or is there more nuance?
Before answering this question, let’s recap the Special Counsel investigation over the past year.
On October 5, 2017, former Trump campaign adviser George Papadopoulos pled guilty to making false statements to the FBI about contacts he had with agents of the Russian government while working for the campaign. He began cooperating with investigators.
On October 30, 2017, Trump’s former campaign chairman Paul Manafort surrendered to the FBI. Manafort was charged with conspiracy against the United States, conspiracy to launder money, failure to file reports of foreign bank and financial accounts, being an unregistered agent of foreign principal, and false and misleading FARA statements. He pled not guilty and is under 24-hour GPS-monitored house arrest.
On December 1, 2017, former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn pled guilty to “willfully and knowingly” making “false, fictitious and fraudulent statements” to the FBI. He began cooperating with investigators.
In total, as of June 1, 2018, the Special Counsel has publicly initiated criminal proceedings against 19 people — five U.S. nationals, 13 Russian nationals, and one Dutch national — and three Russian organizations. Five guilty pleas have been secured: Papadopoulos, Flynn, political consultant Richard Gates, private citizen Richard Pinedo, and Dutch attorney Alex van der Zwaan. Trump has been made a “subject” of the investigation, meaning his conduct is being looked at, but not for criminal charges.
Given the above, calling this a “witch hunt!” seems like a bit of a stretch to say the least, and the American public tends to agree. Based on our latest survey of 1,000 American adults, a near majority (47%) support the Special Counsel investigation and feel it should continue without interference, while just 19% believe the investigation is a partisan witch hunt. At the same time, 15% are unsure about how they feel on the issue, and 18% feel that the investigation should be wrapped up soon.
Unsurprisingly, our data indicates that views on this issue are partisan in nature. A clear majority of Democrats (76%) support continuing the Special Counsel investigation without interference while only 3% believe the investigation is a witch hunt. Republicans, on the other, are split. A plurality (38%) do believe the investigation is a witch hunt, 27% support the investigation continuing without interference, and 25% believe the investigation has gone on long enough and should be wrapped up in the near future. It is important to note that while the latter option is not necessarily in support of the Special Counsel investigation, it belies the President’s implicit stance that the investigation is corrupt. Independents are more closely aligned to Democrats, with the plurality supporting the investigation’s continuation without interference (36%), the majority agreeing with its legitimacy (27% for 2nd option), and only 13% believing the investigation is a witch hunt.
As we have discussed in the past, education, ethnicity, and gender are strong indicators of openness to right wing populist ideas, both in this country and in Europe. This proves to be true once again. We have found a significant portion of white males (28%) and non-college educated men (29%) agreeing with the President’s stance that the investigation is a witch hunt. In contrast, very few people of color agree with Trump (6%). However, even demographic groups most favorable to Trump are not with him on this issue. Forty-three (43) percent of white males and 43% of non-college educated men believe the investigation should continue without interference. Women, regardless of education and/or ethnicity, side with continuing the investigation without interference over any other option.
All this being said, one would think that the ongoing investigation, and the numbers together would point to the conclusion that Trump should be taking a bit of a hit when it comes to his own favorability numbers. However, that is not the case. Our most recent survey showed 42% of Americans holding a favorable opinion of the President. This is nine points higher than the Republican Party and matches the Democratic Party favorability. In fact, Trump’s numbers are higher than any other elected official we tested. And in case you are wondering, Robert Mueller is at a 40% favorable rating.
Meanwhile, it is possible that people favor the President, but given everything that is going on, don’t approve of the job he is doing. Instead of the simple approve and disapprove choices, we give people the option of approving what the President has done and how he has gone about it, disapproving of both, or approving of what he is doing but not his approach.
Overall, 46% of Americans disapprove of what the President has done and how he has gone about it, while just 28% of respondents approve of what Trump has done so far and his approach. Almost a 20-point advantage to those holding a negative view. However, 19% approve of what he’s done so far but not how he has gone about it. That means there is an even split between those who disapprove of everything the President does, and those who approve at some level. If that isn’t depressing enough, 47% is the same level of approval the investigation-free Obama White House had thus far into the term. (Yes, these are comparing different scales, but comparing the same question Trump’s job approval is at 41% which is just 6-points lower than where Obama was at the same point in his first term).
Naturally, Republicans are lifting the President’s approval with 56% supporting Trump on both fronts and another 31% approving of what he has done in office alone. Unexpectedly, college-educated and non-college educated men hold similar views, approving of what Trump has done and how he has gone about it with 32% and 33% respectively. Not shockingly, white voters also have higher than average approval of the President with a third (33%) approving of his performance on both fronts and another 23% at least approve of what he’s done so far.
What does this all mean? On one hand, President Trump’s defiant and arguably disruptive defense of his campaign’s participation in Russian interference in the 2016 elections is not shifting the public’s perception to his favor. People, by and large, still see the investigation as a legitimate means to rectify democratic concerns of foreign interference. However, this failure has not impacted Trump’s favorability or approval. It is clear by now that the President operates under different rules, and the Special Counsel’s investigation is just another example. His accusations of politically motivated corruption harken to the distrust many have of the “establishment,” allowing him to continue to market himself as the people’s President at war with elitists, like Mueller. Remember, this is a zero-sum game and the President continues to survive despite the ongoing investigation.
