Tax “Reform” and Obama-Trump/ Obama-Neither Voters
Last week, the House of Representatives passed their version of “tax reform,” and the Senate is scheduled to vote on their version right after the Thanksgiving holiday. Assuming the Senate can pass something, the two bills would then go to a conference committee; the plan right now is for the Republicans to have a bill on the President’s desk by Christmas. There are still a lot of steps to go before that can happen, and with about a dozen working days left for Congress in 2017, it is not hard to picture that the self-imposed Christmas deadline will be missed. This is especially true when you factor in the other issues Congress has to deal with next month, including a continuing resolution to keep the government open, and the expiration of DACA (the Dream Act).
So far, all timing hurdles aside, the American public is not exactly thrilled with the plan passed by the House. Indeed, according to current national surveys, opposition to the House plan ranges from the mid to high 50’s and support tends to be in the mid 30’s. This has clearly not been a deterrence for Republican leaders, and their view seems to be that a “win” is the most important outcome. The lack of time spent on this bill, along with the fact that the Senate will not hold a single public hearing, is all you really need to know when it comes to their thinking. But are the Republicans making the smart decision on trying to ram this bill through, or are they reading the tea leaves incorrectly?
To answer this question, we decided to look at our latest national survey of 1,000 American adults and focus on two specific groups of voters: Obama-Neither voters and Obama-Trump voters. As the names would suggest, Obama-Neither voters are those who voted for President Obama in 2012 but did not vote for either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton in 2016. Obama-Trump voters are those who voted for President Obama in 2012 and voted for Donald Trump in 2016. In our latest survey, both groups compromise 6% each of the overall population. These groups were clearly influential in the last election and are likely to be again in 2018.
To draw an image of an Obama-Neither voter, we find that they are most likely to be single, making less than $100,000 a year, a Millennial, personally know an immigrant or is one themselves, and identify as independent. The stereotypical image that comes to mind is the media coined “Bernie Bro” identity. A young person, disenfranchised with establishment politics, and very turned off by the idea of a Hillary Clinton presidency. In our survey, 34% of Obama-Neither voters report that they voted for Gary Johnson, 30% of them did not vote at all, 11% voted for Jill Stein, and 22% wrote in the name of a candidate.
Obama-Trump voters are quite different from Obama-Neither voters. We found that an Obama-Trump voter is more likely to be white, married, making less than $100,000 a year, a Baby Boomer, identify as Republican or Independent, and are unlikely to know any immigrants. The popular image of Obama-Trump voters perpetuated in the media has been the white blue-collar worker in rural America. While this generalization does hold some truth, there are exceptions, including the fact that our survey found that more Obama-Trump voters were college-graduates (39%) than the Obama-Neither cohort (28%).
These groups not only look different on paper, but they also have diverging views when it comes to the President. In our survey, 87% of Obama-Neither voters have an unfavorable view of the President, while 75% of Obama-Trump voters are favorable to him. Similarly, their expectations of Trump differ, as half of Obama-Neither voters (50%) believe he is doing a worse job than they had expected, while a plurality of Obama-Trump voters (71%) disapprove of the job Trump has done so far, and how he has gone about it, while just 17% of Obama-Trump voters share this opinion.
However, there are other similarities between these two groups outside of not voting for Hillary Clinton in 2016. First and foremost, both groups continue to strongly dislike Clinton, with an overwhelming majority of voters on both sides. In fact, 69% of Obama-Neither voters have an unfavorable opinion about the former Secretary of State, as do 80% of Obama-Trump voters. Second, there is some commonality when it comes to how these groups picture themselves. A majority of both groups (59% of Obama-Neither and 56% of Obama-Trump) describe their personal ideology as moderate. Interestingly, when it comes to how they view their ideology compared to Trump’s ideology, there is a different view. Among Obama-Neither voters, 51% feel that Trump is more conservative than they are, while 10% feel aligned with the President, and 16% feel Trump is more liberal than they are. However, when we look at the Obama-Trump voters 25% feel aligned with the President, 42% feel the President is more conservative than they are, and 31% feel Trump is more liberal than they are.
Another similarity between these two groups is that about one-quarter of each are generally unsure if they want Democrats or Republicans in charge of Congress after the 2018 election. There is a big contrast among those who have an opinion, with 62% of Obama-Neither voters wanting Democrats in charge, and 52% of Obama-Trump voters would prefer Republicans to maintain control.
As of right now, it does not appear that the vast majority of Obama-Trump voters will be running back to Democratic candidates in 2018. At the same time, however, the Obama-Neither voters are leaning towards moving back to Democrats. With this in mind, are Republicans making the right play on their tax bill?
According to our survey, both groups overwhelming support tax cuts for the middle class when it comes to tax reform. However, when asked about the outcome of lowering taxes on companies and wealthy individuals, there is clear disagreement. Obama-Neither voters are split, with 39% of voters saying lowering taxes on companies and high-income Americans would not help the economy, while 35% believe it would allow for more spending and therefore help the overall economy. In comparison, 51% of Obama-Trump feel lowering taxes on companies and high-income Americans would allow for more spending, and just 38% believe it will not have a positive effect.
There is also a noticeable difference when it comes to the intensity of support around a few key issues. One-quarter of Obama-Trump voters (25%) support lowering the corporate tax rate compared to 14% of Obama-Neither voters. When it comes to doubling the earned income tax credit, support among Obama-Trump and Obama-Neither is 45% and 33%, respectively. Additionally, there is a 7-point difference between the two groups when it comes to doubling the child tax credit (38% compared to 31% among Obama-Neither voters).
At the end of the day, Republicans are going to have a tough time pleasing both of these groups. However, their current efforts are likely to impress voters they already have (the Obama-Trump voters), while going against the equally important Obama-Neither voters. At this point in time, it is too late for the GOP to turn back and try to set their efforts up as failure at the hands of Democrats; instead, they have created a situation where if they succeed, they are likely to push a good number of the Obama-Neither voters back to supporting Democratic candidates. If they fail, it is likely that their base and Obama-Trump voters are going to potentially sit out the election next year — we don’t see many of either group voting for Democratic candidates at this point. Either way, it will not be an ideal outcome for the GOP. Whether or not this will make a difference in enough districts for Democrats to win back the House is another question, but as of right now, we are not yet seeing a wave election. But it’s only November of 2017.
