Post-Election Views of the American Economy

According to the experts, the economy is still doing as well as it was before the election, with decreasing unemployment and a “healthy” stock market and housing market, but wages and the country’s GDP have remained flat. Overall, Americans’ economic outlook matches what the economists see as little has changed regarding Americans’ views on the U.S. economy, their area, and themselves; however, they have high hopes for the future. As we have demonstrated earlier this year, while the overall views of the economy have changed little over the past year, there has been a dramatic shift in who is seeing the economy positively and who is viewing all the negative aspects, largely driven by political views, namely 2016 presidential candidate choice.

In our last four national surveys, we have asked American adults a series of questions to gauge their economic outlook. These included Americans’ views on the status of the county’s economy, how their area is doing compared to others, and how they are doing themselves. We then created a personal economy score ranging from +3 (very positive) to -3 (very negative). As you can see in the chart above, the overall views have remained remarkably consistent. The largest change is that fewer people are pessimistic about all three than this time last year, 8% vs. 12%. However, those who have remained optimistic about all three has stayed the same (13%). But these are minor shifts.

When focusing only on how Americans feel about the future of our economy, we are seeing more movement than what is shown in the overall score. Americans’ expectation for the economy over the next couple of years initially increased between October 2016 and March 2017, driven my Trump supporters who shifted dramatically from very pessimistic about the future economy to incredibly optimistic; however, these numbers have been steadily declining since March, while those who feel the economy will get worse or stay the same has been on the rise.

The changes in opinion among Clinton and Trump voters since before the election and in the months since have been incredibly interesting. Indeed, before the election, 1 in 5 Trump voters thought the economy had gotten worse, their area was doing worse than others, and that they themselves were worse off than other, while just 6% of Clinton voters felt the same. However, now, despite the lack of major economic changes, Trump voters see the economy that Clinton voters saw a year ago. The red dotted line of Trump voters this month in the chart below almost perfect matches the solid blue line of Clinton voters a year ago. While Clinton voters are clearly more pessimistic about the economy than this time last year, they are not nearly as negative as Trump voters were a year ago.

While Clinton voters were more likely to view the economy as stable to good, they were never terribly optimistic about the future of the U.S. economy, possibly because they understood it was already doing well by most measurements or they had little faith in Clinton’s ability as president to have a dramatic effect. Clinton voters now remain sure, however, that the U.S. economy will be worse off after two years of a Trump presidency. Before the election, only 17% of Clinton voters thought that the economy would get worse, however, that increased by 30 points right after Trump took office and has held steady since. On the other side, Trump voters’ optimism skyrocketed after the election. In October just 15% of his supporters thought the economy was going to get better over the next two years, that number jumped almost 60 points, and while it has dropped in the last two surveys, 64% of his voters still feel optimistic about the future.

Trump voters overall are still confident in their candidate and his ability to improve the economy over the next two years, but his base’s confidence may be weaker than initially thought. Initial confidence in the economy getting better over the next two years was largely driven by white college-educated Trump supporters, 73% of whom thought it would get better in March, while a still strong two-thirds of white non-college Trump supporters thought it would get better.

In May, Trump lost some of the confidence of both groups, but more dramatically among white college supporters. Among this cohort, the optimistic view dropped by over 10 points. Among non-college white supporters, the optimistic view dropped just 4 points over the same period.

Through the summer and early fall, Trump has been able to build back the confidence of white college supporters, although the confidence of his white non-college supporters has continued to drop to 59% thinking the economy will get better. Clearly it is still a majority of this cohort, but the trend is something we will be keeping an eye on.

Expectations for the future of the economy is not the only place where Trump’s base diverges from his college-educated supporters. Indeed, white non-college and college Trump supporters no longer see eye-to-eye on their own personal economy. As you can see in the chart below, before the election (solid lines), white non-college and college Trump voters largely followed the same path with those without a college degree leaning a couple points more negative. White non-college supporters were only 2 points more likely to think all three measures were negative while there was only a 3-point difference on the positive end. However, now, 30% of white college-educated Trump supporters think the economy, their area, and themselves are doing well while just half of that (16%) can be said for their non-college educated peers. Despite starting in the same position before the election, Trump’s supporters are seeing the economic effects of his presidency very differently, perhaps to some, the President’s boasting about the record breaking stock market is getting drowned out by flat wages and a lack of focus on the middle class when it comes to the current tax “reform” plan.

Although political views largely influence how Americans see the economy — or at least how they report they view it — voters are only willing to look past the party of the White House occupant for so long. While there remains little chance that Trump will be able to convince Clinton voters that the economy and their own situation are improving, it would be in his own best interest to focus his efforts on helping his base economically as many do not feel “sick of winning.” With Black Friday in our rearview mirror, it will be interesting to see how the holiday shopping numbers differ this year from last and also compared to the last pre-Trump shopping season. While we wait for those numbers to become available, it is clearly interesting times in this country and the economy, or at least economic views, are not isolated from political trends.